Super Tuesday: campaign finance and the dynamics of sequential elections

I develop a model of campaign finance in primary elections in which campaigns, which supply hard information about candidates’ electability, must be financed by strategic donors. I provide a rationale for Super Tuesday electoral calendars in which a block of voters vote simultaneously early in the election followed by other voters voting sequentially. For a range of campaign costs, such a calendar maximizes expected donations to nomination campaigns and, thus, the ex-ante probability of electing the best candidate over all possible electoral calendars. ∗I am grateful to Scott Ashworth, Marco Battaglini, Wioletta Dziuda, Navin Kartik, John Londregan, Adam Meirowitz, Stephen Morris and seminar participants at Princeton University, NYU, and the University of Chicago for their comments and encouragement. †Banco de México, Dirección General de Asuntos del Sistema Financiero. Email: [email protected]